What to Keep an Eye On Going Forward

As summer fades and autumn approaches, global markets are bracing for a series of pivotal events that could shape investment sentiment into the end of 2025. Central banks, fiscal authorities, and geopolitical forces all have their turn on stage in the coming weeks. For investors, understanding what’s on the horizon and how it may ripple through portfolios — is more important than ever.

What to Look Out For in the Markets: Key Events Shaping Portfolios in 2025

September: Central Banks Take the Spotlight

The first major event comes from Tokyo. On 18–19 September, the Bank of Japan holds its next monetary policy meeting. After months of yen weakness and stubbornly high inflation, speculation is rife that policymakers may tweak yield-curve controls or step in to curb further currency declines. For international investors, any surprise shift could be felt far beyond Japan’s borders. A stronger yen would challenge exporters and may cool the Nikkei’s rally, while global funds with Asia exposure should prepare for a bout of volatility in currency and equity markets alike.

Just days later, attention swings to Washington, where the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets are less concerned with the cut itself than with the Fed’s forward guidance. Will policymakers signal that more cuts are on the way in 2026, or will they proceed cautiously in the face of sticky inflation? The answer could determine whether the current equity rally has room to run or if bond yields snap higher, dragging growth stocks down with them. For diversified portfolios, this is a moment when both fixed income and equities could move sharply in opposite directions.

Rounding out the month is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on 28 September. The RBA continues to wrestle with strong wage growth and an unusually tight labour market. While most analysts expect rates to remain on hold, even subtle shifts in tone will be scrutinised. A dovish lean could weaken the Australian dollar, boosting exporters but potentially dampening overseas returns for global investors holding AUD-denominated assets.

October: Europe Confronts a Balancing Act

By late October, focus will shift to Frankfurt as the European Central Bank convenes. Growth across the eurozone remains fragile, but inflation pressures persist, especially in energy and wage-sensitive sectors. Markets are eager to see whether the ECB signals a pivot toward easing or maintains its cautious stance. A softer outlook could send eurozone bonds higher and give equities — particularly in rate-sensitive industries such as property and utilities — a welcome lift. For investors with European holdings, the ECB’s message could set the tone for year-end performance.

November: All Eyes on the UK

The marquee event of the autumn arrives on 26 November, when Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her first full UK Budget, accompanied by updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Expectations are low: the OBR is likely to downgrade productivity projections, widening the fiscal gap by as much as £18 billion annually. That will put the government under pressure to choose between raising taxes, cutting spending, or stretching its fiscal rules.

For investors, the implications are wide-ranging. Frozen income tax thresholds already create “fiscal drag” for households, while potential reforms to property or capital gains taxation could directly affect portfolio planning. Sterling may also come under pressure if markets doubt the government’s fiscal credibility, which ironically could benefit investors holding globally diversified assets in U.S. dollars or euros.

The Wildcards: Inflation and Geopolitics

Overlaying all of these scheduled events are two unpredictable forces: inflation and geopolitics. Monthly CPI releases in the U.S., UK, and EU have become market-moving events in their own right. Any sign that inflation remains stickier than expected could delay or dilute the wave of anticipated rate cuts, pushing bond yields higher and tempering equity valuations.

Meanwhile, geopolitics continues to cast a long shadow. Tariff threats between the U.S., China, and India, as well as disruptions to energy supplies —

from Russian refineries to Middle Eastern shipping lanes — keep commodity markets volatile. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, creating headaches for central banks and investors alike. In contrast, any de-escalation in trade tensions or fresh supply coming online could ease inflationary pressures and support risk assets.

What This Means for Portfolios

The months ahead highlight the importance of staying diversified and alert. Equity investors should be prepared for short-term swings driven by central bank rhetoric and inflation data. Bondholders may find opportunity in longer-duration assets if rate cuts materialise, but should remain cautious of upside surprises in inflation. Currencies, from the yen to sterling and the Australian dollar, could be particularly volatile, making unhedged positions a source of both risk and opportunity.

Ultimately, the best defence is balance: a mix of global equities, bonds, and real assets, with careful attention to currency exposures. By keeping an eye on these upcoming milestones, investors can position themselves not just to weather volatility, but to take advantage of the opportunities it creates.

Key Takeaways

• September is central bank season: Japan, the U.S., and Australia all meet, setting the tone for FX and bond markets.

• October brings Europe into focus: The ECB’s stance will influence eurozone bonds and rate-sensitive equities.

• November’s UK Budget is pivotal: Productivity downgrades and fiscal tightening could weigh on sterling and UK-focused investments.

• Inflation and geopolitics remain wildcards: Energy shocks or tariff disputes could derail easing expectations.

• Diversification is essential: Balancing equities, bonds, currencies, and real assets helps protect against shocks while keeping portfolios positioned for opportunity.

👉 Markets are moving fast and the next few months will be shaped by central banks, budgets, and geopolitics. If you’d like to discuss how these events could affect your portfolio or explore strategies to stay diversified and prepared - let’s set up a call. You can book a time in my diary by 'Clicking Here'.